Demographic and Investment Drivers of CO2 Emissions in West Africa: Testing the Pollution-Haven Hypothesis

Africa’s rapid economic integration and rising foreign investment bring both opportunities and environmental risks. This study examines the demographic and investment drivers of CO2 emissions in 14 ECOWAS countries over the period 1996 to 2020, with a focus on testing the pollution-haven hypothesis. Using panel data estimations Fixed Effects with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to address heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence the study investigates the effects of population growth, deforestation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on carbon emissions. The findings indicate that population growth significantly increases CO2 emissions, confirming that demographic pressures are a key contributor to environmental degradation in the region. FDI also exhibits a weak but statistically significant positive effect, suggesting a pollution-haven effect in West Africa, particularly in least developed member states where industrial infrastructure and access to electricity are limited. Deforestation was not statistically significant, reflecting heterogeneous land-use patterns and the complex role of forest management in CO2 dynamics. The study highlights that economic growth and foreign investment in West Africa can exacerbate environmental pressures unless mitigated through strategic policy interventions. Climate diplomacy, clean technology promotion, and regional climate governance emerge as critical tools to balance development objectives with environmental sustainability. These results provide empirical guidance for ECOWAS policymakers and international stakeholders seeking to design targeted interventions that harmonize economic growth, foreign investment, and environmental stewardship.