Has the proliferation of multilateral trade agreements generated greater risk exposure to the global production network?

In the context of global value chain restructuring, identifying and quantifying industry chain risks is essential for the study of global economic security. This paper treats Multilateral Trade Agreements (MTAs) as sources of structural risk, integrating network science, input–output analysis, and counterfactual methods. Using ADB-MRIO data, we construct a Global Industrial Value Chain Network model and apply XIFA algorithm to reduce dimensionality, extracting both the actual post-MTA network and a counterfactual network without MTAs. Through Hypothetical Elimination Method, we identify MTA-induced risk exposures, thereby establishing a multi-perspective risk-measurement framework. Our findings are: (1) The risk exposure of the global industrial chain presents a “core-periphery” structure, core countries face the most exposures, a lower number of risk exposures in the peripheral regions, but under the influence of global economic uncertainty, and semi-core areas remain relatively stable. (2) High-tech manufacturing and business services have a high number of risk exposures and a fast growth rate due to strong upstream and downstream linkages and strong reliance on technological capital; primary industries with simple production chains and low technological reliance have relatively stable risk exposures. (3) There are differences in the risk patterns of the industrial chain between China and the United States, with China being more sensitive to the risks of resources and wholesale trade, and the United States relying more strongly on the risks of high-end manufacturing. (4) From the point of view of the node position of the two countries in the global production network, as an upstream node, China is exposed to higher risks in mining and wholesale trade, while the U.S. is more vulnerable to technology-intensive industries, such as machinery, electrical and transportation equipment; as a downstream node, the construction industry is a common risk plateau between China and the U.S., but China is affected by the impact of residential leverage and the slowdown of infrastructure, while the U.S. is pressured by the vacancy of commercial real estate and fluctuations in energy costs. The U.S. is under pressure from commercial real estate vacancies and energy cost volatility.