Structure, evolution, and resilience of the pearl goods global trade network

The rapid expansion of the global pearl industry has not been met by a rigorous, network-based appraisal of its trade structure and systemic risk. Drawing on the UN Comtrade records of 128 economies during the 2012–2023 period, this study constructs a multiplex, directed, and weighted network that distinguishes upstream wholesale pearls from downstream pearl articles. Complex-network diagnostics (degree, betweenness, and molecularity) are complemented by edge-percolations simulations for tracking the relative size of the largest connected component and the global efficiency under random and targeted link failures. The results confirm a persistent small-world topology. Upstream hubs are dictated by natural endowments—principally those of China, Australia, and French Polynesia—whereas midstream brokerage is dominated by the United States, Germany, and Switzerland. Technological-standard diffusion has shifted the growth nodes from the traditional quartet of the United States, China, Japan, and Australia to continental Europe and South Asia. Despite progressive decentralization, China and the United States remain the dual fulcra of both value and intermediation. Resilience tests reveal that the level of overall stability has improved since 2013, yet the system is still highly sensitive to the removal of some of the high-betweenness edges. Eliminating such bridges results in a > 20% drop in network efficiency that occurs long before any equivalent random deletions do. These findings furnish a quantitative benchmark for monitoring trade route diversification, highlight the need for contingency logistics that can bypass incumbent hubs, and provide a decision-analytic basis for governments and firms seeking to fortify the pearl value chain against ecological shocks, trade disputes, and the tightening of sustainability standards.