Rethinking global hotspots of high-priority viral zoonoses to guide spillover risk monitoring

Viral diseases of wildlife origin pose a growing threat to public health, and anthropogenic global change is accelerating their emergence. The World Health Organisation identified priority viral diseases expected to pose a threat to public health in the future, to which little response capacity is currently available. Here, we predict the host-range of seven high-priority viral groups associated with mammals worldwide, and map their potential hazard hotspots. We also assess drivers of human exposure to zoonotic spillover within predicted hazard hotspots and examine temporal trends in anthropogenic pressures. Our models predict a five-fold increase of the currently known host ranges of the target viral groups, with Ebolavirus and Marburgvirus showing the greatest proportional host range increase. Hotspots of viral hazard cover approximately one-third of the global land surface and are primarily found in Central and Western Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. Rates of deforestation and human population growth are increasing in many of these hotspots, indicating rising risk of human exposure to zoonotic spillover. Tropical Africa is highlighted as both a potentially neglected source of viral diversity, and a high-risk region for viral emergence. Our findings can provide guidance to surveillance efforts and land-use planning as part of global pandemic preparedness strategies under current One Health policy.