Increasing climate extremes and occurrences of compound events in the Northeast Hill Region of India

Climate extremes and their occurrences are the main factors that determine climate risk, especially for the resource-poor farmers with limited adaptive capacities. This study examines the trends, variability, and return periods of climate extremes across the northeastern hill (NEH) region of India using long-term climatic data and standardized indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Results reveal a consistent increase in temperature-related extremes, including summer days, maximum temperature, and diurnal temperature range, particularly pronounced at stations in Meghalaya (Umiam) and Mizoram (Kolasib). Precipitation extremes, such as consecutive dry days, very heavy rainfall events, and high-intensity precipitation, also exhibited increasing trends at several locations, most notably in Kolasib and Manipur (Imphal). Shortened return periods for both prolonged dry spells and extreme precipitation events suggest an increasing frequency and intensity of compound climate extremes. Seasonal analysis indicates that the most pronounced changes occur during the monsoon and pre-monsoon periods, directly impacting cropping calendars and agricultural systems. These changes pose significant challenges to rainfed agriculture, water security, and disaster vulnerability in the region’s steep and fragile landscapes. The findings underscore the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural planning, improved watershed and disaster risk management, and the development of region-specific adaptation strategies. Timely advisories, robust institutional support, and targeted policy interventions are essential to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. This research provides critical baseline information for informed regional climate policy, sustainable development planning, and adaptive capacity building in one of India’s most ecologically and culturally significant regions.