Analysis of Projected Climate Trends, Variability, and Changes in Extreme Indices in Central Oromia, Ethiopia

This study examines projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2050s) and end-century (2080s) compared to the baseline period (1991–2022) across multiple stations in Central Ethiopia. The analysis reveals significant warming trends, with annual mean maximum temperatures projected to increase by 0.37–5.91°C and minimum temperatures by 1.52–6.35°C, depending on the scenario and timeframe. Seasonal temperature changes show pronounced warming, particularly during the Bega and Belg seasons, with minimum temperatures rising more sharply than maximum temperatures. These shifts are more severe under SSP8.5, highlighting the impact of higher greenhouse gas emissions. Precipitation extremes also exhibit notable changes, with increases in consecutive wet days (CWD) and heavy rainfall indices (R10mm, R20mm, R95p) at most stations, while consecutive dry days (CDD) and extreme rainfall (R99p) show mixed trends. Total rainfall (PRCPTOT) is projected to increase overall, except at localized stations like Jeldu and Waliso. The study underscores the implications of these changes for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems, including risks of flooding, waterlogging, drought, and heat stress. Adaptation strategies such as resilient crop varieties, improved water management, and flood control measures are essential to mitigate these impacts. The findings align with regional climate studies, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures to address the challenges posed by climate change in the study area.