Global Solar Energy Transition and End-of-Life PV Forecasts Through 2050

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 relies on the rapid expansion of solar energy, projected to dominate global electricity generation. However, the widespread deployment of solar panels introduces a critical challenge: managing end-of-life panels as systems reach their 20–35-year lifespan. Existing measurement of the obsolescence often rely on outdated data or limited regional scopes. Here, we present a global forecast of obsolescent solar panels by integrating historical data, national energy targets, and data-driven models to estimate installed capacity across 160 countries, covering over 95% of the global population. Our projections indicate that meeting global solar targets will require 15.9–16.4 TW of installed capacity by 2050, generating 3.0¬-3.5 TW of obsolescent panels under a 25-year lifespan and up to 5.3 TW under shorter lifetimes. With solar panels accumulation accelerating from 2024, urgent recycling strategies are needed to mitigate material losses and support a circular solar economy.