An Assessment of the Potential of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Application in South Africa – System Dynamics Perspective

South Africa’s coal-powered electricity grid, which supplies over 85% of the country’s power, experienced major load shedding in 2022. With electricity demand expected to double by 2025, there has been rapid growth in rooftop solar systems — increasing from 1,000 MW in 2022 to 5,000 MW by 2024. This study uses System Dynamics (SD) modeling and Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to explore key factors driving change, including power outages, social inequality, and weather patterns. It highlights how feedback loops are shaping the energy transition: for instance, frequent load shedding encourages more households and businesses to install solar panels, while cloudy or rainy weather reduces their effectiveness. These dynamics point to the urgent need for both fair energy policies and technical solutions to support a more sustainable and reliable electricity system.