A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion

Lithium resource depletion poses a critical bottleneck to global electrification. Here, we develop an innovative learning curve model incorporating the reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio dynamics and learning rate (α) to quantitatively predict lithium depletion timelines. Our analysis reveals global lithium reserves face imminent shortage (R/P < 10) by 2042, followed by near-total depletion (R/P < 1) by 2058, validated through integrated global EV sales and installed capacity data. The rapid adoption of high-energy-density systems (e.g., NCM/NCA cathodes, Si-based anodes all-solid-state batteries), with insufficient cathode utilization efficiencies, could advance the shortage to 2037~2040. Even with 100% recycling, the 10-year service life of dominant applications (power and energy storage batteries) limits recycled lithium to ≤9% of total demand, insufficient to offset consumption growth. To address this crisis, we propose strategy-focused solutions: advancing direct lithium extraction from low-quality brines, accelerating non-lithium alternatives, and establishing global resource-sharing frameworks. This work provides actionable insights for policy-making and sustainable resource management in the energy transition era.