Mapping spatial zones of climate vulnerability and adaptive potential for major crops in the Texas High Plains

Climate change poses an increasing threat to agricultural productivity in the Texas High Plains (THP), a semi-arid region facing both warming trends and declining groundwater resources. This study integrates process-based crop modeling with geospatial analysis to identify spatial zones of climate vulnerability and adaptive potential for four major crops; winter wheat, cotton, maize, and grain sorghum under future climate scenarios. Using the DSSAT model, historical (1991–2020) and future yields (2031–2060 and 2070–2099) were simulated across 48 counties under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Spatial clustering techniques, including Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics, were applied to classify counties into vulnerable, adaptive, stable, and more stable zones based on projected yield changes. Results revealed that wheat vulnerability was concentrated in southern counties, with projected yield decreases of 10–30% under RCP 8.5, while northern counties showed 30–50% yield increases under RCP 4.5 mid-century and RCP 8.5 end-century. In contrast, cotton yields are projected to increase by 20–40% across most counties under RCP 4.5 end-century and RCP 8.5 mid- and end-century, with localized vulnerability emerging in southwestern THP under RCP 8.5 by end-century. Grain sorghum yields are projected to increase by 10–20% in eastern and northern counties under RCP 4.5, but under RCP 8.5 widespread yield declines exceeding 40% are expected by end-century, attributed to reduced rainfall and increased temperature stress during the growing season. In contrast, maize showed greater resilience, with yield changes varying spatially but remaining positive in many southern counties. These spatially explicit findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including the deployment of climate-resilient crop varieties, optimized irrigation management, crop diversification, and adaptive land use planning. The study offers actionable insights to support climate-resilient agricultural planning and inform precision adaptation policies for sustaining crop productivity in the THP under future climate scenario