Mapping Land Use Suitability for Processing Tomato Cultivation in a Climate Change Scenario: A Case Study in an Irrigated Agricultural Area of Central Italy

This study evaluates the suitability of agricultural land use (LUS) in the Tarquinia Plain, central Italy. The research focuses on processing tomatoes, a key high-value crop, and assesses its suitability under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2011-2100). The methodology follows the FAO guidelines and integrates climatic projections, as well as physical and chemical soil characteristics, alongside crop management practices. Expert knowledge was incorporated through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assign weights to variables, reflecting diverse perspectives on the relative importance of climate versus soil factors. The LUS assessment, which integrates all variables, currently classifies the Tarquinia Plain as moderately suitable (S2) for tomato cultivation. However, future climate projections indicate significant impacts: under the RCP8.5 scenario, areas classified as highly suitable decline, and moderately suitable areas transition to marginally suitable, with only 12.45% remaining moderately suitable by 2100 and no areas classified as highly suitable. This study underscores the critical influence of climatic variables on agricultural potential, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies in crop management for the Tarquinia Plain.