Lenient Sentencing Under Strict Policy：Sentencing Factors and Mechanisms in China's Epidemic Prevention Cases

This study investigates the paradox of lenient sentencing under China’s strict epidemic-related criminal policies by analyzing 81 obstruction cases from China Judgments Online. An integrated framework of “policy response – risk control – case equity” guides the empirical analysis using OLS and Logit models. Findings reveal a temporal decay effect—sentences become more lenient over time—and a regional reinforcement effect—harsher penalties in high-risk areas. Risk-related factors like quarantine refusal and confirmed cases increase sentence length, while voluntary confession and defendant infection mitigate it. Robustness checks confirm the results. The study introduces the concepts of “embedded autonomy” and “elastic rule of law” to explain how courts adjust sentencing to balance policy goals with individualized justice under crisis conditions. Policy recommendations focus on enhancing sentencing transparency and fairness.