OSINT Analysis Briefing on the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Economic Work Conference

This paper examines the policy signals emanating from the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on 10–11 December 2025. It aims to reveal the underlying logic of China's macro-governance transition from ‘passively responding to shocks’ to ‘proactively restructuring growth models within a high-uncertainty environment’. Furthermore, it addresses where the decisive constraints on growth stability lie over the next three to five years, and how to establish a verifiable risk warning and scenario simulation framework. Methodologically, this study employs an OSINT evidence chain based on publicly available information and structured coding of policy discourse. It maps the conference's directives onto a three-dimensional analytical framework comprising the ‘demand axis – supply axis – security axis’: interpreting the growth underpinning mechanism through ‘domestic demand leadership and consumption recovery’; delineating the supply-side repositioning pathway via ‘new-quality productive forces and institutional opening-up’; and incorporating real estate, local government debt, and small-to-medium financial institutions into a multidimensional risk floor system to construct a comprehensive safety net. Findings indicate China's economy is converging towards a ‘risk-containment medium-speed growth model,’ whose strategic core involves corrective rebalancing within a ‘domestic demand-innovation-security’ triadic structure: Within the medium-speed growth range, it aims to rebuild growth quality and societal resilience, with risk floor constraints providing a stabilising anchor for policy space. However, structural vulnerabilities will persist long-term in the form of ‘slow real estate deleveraging and balance sheet repair’ alongside ‘resource constraints on local government and platform debt’. Compounded by tail risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, these could spill over into sustained pressures through channels such as cash flow strains, regional credit contraction, and entrenched expectations. Based on these findings, this paper proposes a rolling assessment methodology centred on scenario tree simulation. It constructs a minimum early-warning indicator set (covering property and local debt, financial system health, innovation implementation, and social expectations) to enhance cross-period comparability and calibrability. The conclusion posits that the critical factor for the future lies not in the single-year growth rate itself, but in whether the transition from a ‘high-leverage property-driven, external demand-pulled’ model to a ‘domestic demand-driven, technology-intensive, green transformation’ can be achieved without triggering systemic crises. Should this transition be impeded and compounded by external shocks, the combined effects of diminished policy space and multiple constraints would significantly heighten medium-term downside and spillover risks.