Global asymmetric trade-offs between agriculture and carbon in urbanization-driven land conversion

Urban expansion reshapes telecoupled global land systems, inducing extensive land conversion and displacement, thereby driving asymmetric agriculture-carbon trade-offs across regions. This study applies the meta-coupling framework (McF) to analyze global land conversion (2001–2020), simulating the related carbon loss and agricultural value. Results show that direct urban encroachment (35.2 Mha), concentrated in China, Europe, and North America, displaced cropland demands to tropical regions. Indirect forest-to-cropland conversion (42.5 Mha), dominated in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa—accounting for 56% (3.05×10 ¹⁰ kg C·yr⁻¹) of total carbon loss. Core regions (e.g., Asia, Europe) experienced agricultural losses (-1.87×10¹² GK$), while tropical peripheries gained benefit (1.24×10 ¹² GK$) but suffered severe carbon depletion (53.5% in Latin America). Economic gradients reinforced inequality: low-income countries absorbed 70% of carbon losses despite minimal historical emissions. Addressing this spatial decoupling through transboundary governance that integrates urban development, agricultural resilience, and carbon justice ^a can help advance more sustainable human-land systems. [a] Carbon justice: ensuring that emissions burdens align with capacity and responsibility