Effects of Climate Change on Food security and Sustainable Development in Saudi Arabia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

This study investigates the effects of climate change on food security and sustainable development in Saudi Arabia from 1981 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Unlike prior research, this study quantifies climate change through the ecological footprint (EFP), which captures humanity’s demand on ecosystems, and evaluates food security (FS) using food production as a proxy. The analysis incorporates additional variables, including rainfall (RF), population (POP), agricultural sector growth (AGR), and GDP per capita (GDPC), to explore dynamic interrelationships. Results reveal a significant adverse impact of climate change on food security in both short- and long-term scenarios. Key findings demonstrate that a 1% increase in ecological footprint reduces food security, with long-run coefficients underscoring persistent vulnerabilities. Policy implications emphasize the urgency of integrating climate resilience into Saudi Arabia’s agricultural and economic strategies, promoting sustainable resource management to mitigate ecological pressures and enhance food security. This study provides critical insights for policymakers aiming to align Saudi Vision 2030 with climate adaptation and sustainable development goals. JEL classification : Q54, Q56, Q18, O13, Q15