Free WIll Belief Predicts Individual and Societal Punitiveness Across 44 Countries

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Abstract

Belief in free will has been linked to more punitive and retributive responses to wrongdoing. While past research has focused on North American samples and criminal contexts, this study tested whether free will belief predicts punitiveness across diverse cultural and moral contexts (everyday and criminal transgressions). We surveyed 8,917 participants from 44 countries using a validated measure of free will belief and a vignette-based measure of punitiveness. Multilevel analysis revealed that individuals with stronger free will belief were more punitive toward everyday moral transgressions. At the country level, average free will belief predicted greater support for the death penalty and higher incarceration rates. These findings suggest that free will belief is a cross-culturally robust predictor of punitiveness, both at the personal and societal levels. Implications are discussed for the potential benefits of mitigating free will belief in specific contexts to promote more humane and forward-looking approaches to justice.

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