Conflict-induced disruptions create a new regime of food price dynamics in the Gaza Strip

Accurate monitoring and forecasting of food prices is vital for anticipating humanitarian crises and informing policy responses. We investigate the effects of the war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, on the price dynamics of nine staple food commodities in the region. We combine time-series modeling and forecasting techniques to compare prewar trends with observed wartime deviations. We show that locally produced commodities, particularly chicken meat and olive oil, experienced the most extreme price shocks. These results reveal a marked departure from prior patterns of weak inter-commodity correlation and seasonal regularity, indicating a systemic shift in market dynamics. The findings suggest that conflict-induced disruptions created a new price regime, unanticipated by models trained on prewar data. In a broader context, this study underscores the critical role of structural resilience and infrastructure stability in mitigating food price volatility during crises.