Exploring the structural determinants of food security in the GCC region: Evidence from cross-country panel data analysis

This study investigates the key determinants of food price inflation across five Gulf Cooperation Council countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, using panel data from 2000 to 2023. Employing both fixed effects and random effects models, the analysis explores the impact of macroeconomic, agricultural, and demographic factors on food price volatility. The results indicate that food imports, food exports, urban population growth, and the prevalence of undernourishment are significant contributors to rising food prices, reflecting the region’s dependence on external markets and the pressures of rapid urbanization. Conversely, agricultural productivity and employment in agriculture are negatively associated with food price inflation, highlighting the potential benefits of improving domestic production capacity. The fixed effects model outperforms the random effects model in explanatory power, a finding confirmed by the Hausman test, which supports the presence of unobserved country-level effects correlated with the explanatory variables. These results emphasize the importance of tailored, nationally specific policy responses over generalized regional strategies. The study concludes with recommendations to invest in sustainable agriculture, strengthen food logistics and social protection systems, and reduce reliance on oil-financed food imports by building resilient and inclusive food systems across the region.