Assessment of Rainfall Variability in the Western Vidarbha Region of Maharashtra, India

This research analyzed spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal rainfall in five districts of Western Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India, using 31 years (1990–2020) of daily data from 29 stations in Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Washim, and Yavatmal, provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The data were analyzed using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) with a Student's t-test for significance and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test utilizing Sen’s slope (SS) to evaluate trends at a 5% significance level. Results indicate a non-significant declining trend in rainfall overall. Only Yavatmal shows a significant decline in both annual and post-monsoon seasons per SLR. MK tests confirm that rainfall patterns are irregular, with Buldhana and Yavatmal exhibiting significant declines in post-monsoon periods (Z values of -1.97 and − 2.18). The Markov chain method assessed wet and dry spells during the monsoon, indicating low rainfall during meteorological weeks 22 to 27, while most occurred during weeks 28 to 34. The highest consecutive dry spells were in Akola and Washim, whereas Amravati showed a high probability of consecutive wet weeks, indicating consistent monsoonal rainfall. These anomalies have severely impacted agriculture, raising concerns about farmers’ suicides in Vidarbha. Consequently, these findings and visual outputs support policy considerations for effective water management.