Analysis the Past and Future Rainfall Characteristics of the Main Rainy Season over Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Rainfall is very important for the hydrological cycle with a major influence on the environment and agricultural productivity worldwide. This study investigated the historical and projected changes in rainfall during the main rainy season. We analyzed observational data from to 1991‑2020 and projected future rainfall (2021‑2100) using the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project phase 6 Global Climate Models (CMIP6 GCMs),after appropriate performance evaluation. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in the cessation date of the season during the past period. Future projections under various shared socio economic pathways (SSP) scenarios indicate, the onset date of the Kermet season will be delayed, while the cessation date will advance, resulting in a shorter growing period. Interestingly, despite the shortened season, projections suggest an increase in total seasonal rainfall under most scenarios. These findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns on agriculture and water resources in Western Amhara region, Ethiopia.