Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 – Pathways, requirements and challenges

Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in aviation by 2050 requires a significant scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF ) kerosene production. Despite recent progress, global SAF usage in commercial aviation remains minimal, making large-scale SAF adoption by 2050 an immense challenge. Therefore, four SAF deployment and scaling scenarios are systematically evaluated. The results show that achieving net-zero CO2 emissions demands timely and diversified deployment of both biomass- and Power-to-Liquid (PTL)-based SAF technologies – i.e., no single solution can meet the given demand while enabling CO2 reductions at the necessary scale. Sustainable biomass availa-bility emerges as the key factor for a cost-effective SAF deployment, while limited biomass in-creases reliance on costly direct-air-capture (DAC)-based PTL SAF, significantly raising transfor-mation costs. Proactive deployment of SAF technologies and infrastructure is crucial, as develop-ment requires lead time and needs gradual scaling. Efforts should begin immediately, as further delays in scaling SAF technologies risk jeopardizing the aviation sector’s ability to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.