Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling

The world is facing a mounting challenge from the rapid increase in global photovoltaic (PV) waste, as the first generation of PV systems has reached their service life1,2. The climate and economic performance of PV waste management depends heavily on the selection of appropriate recycling strategies3,4. Here, we develop a comprehensive framework to evaluate recycling strategies across 30 regions from 2020 to 2060, assessing the economic and climate benefits of local versus outsourced recycling, covering major recycling technologies. Global PV waste is expected to reach 175–305 million tons (Mt) by 2060, with middle-income countries like China becoming major contributors post-2040. Recycling can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 117 Mt CO2 equivalent and yield US$3.3–18.9 billion in annual net benefits by 2060. Outsourced recycling lowers costs, however, raises inequity concerns for low-income regions. Our results highlight that subsidies temporarily mitigate disparities however wane in long-term efficacy. We suggest that phased subsidy frameworks and international cooperation, with a focus on technology transfer and funding for recycling capacity in low-income countries, provide effective ways to achieve equitable and scalable PV waste circularity.