Tracking Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 Target in Kenya: A Time Series Analysis

Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 is to decrease the under-five mortality rate to under 25 per 1,000 live births by 2030. This is a critical objective for enhancing child health, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where mortality rates persist at elevated levels. Objective This article evaluate progress made in Kenya towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 (by 2030). Further assess historical trends in under-five mortality, project future mortality rates and assess the feasibility of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal target. Method This article utilises panel data from 1995–2022 and three time series models which includes ARIMA, ARFIMA, and a Hybrid model. The most effective model was determined to be an ARIMA (2,1,1) based on the lowest AIC, RMSE (2.34) and MAPE (3.21%), i.e., it was the best fit model through comparison with the others. The MAE was 1.98, support for the model's correction. These metrics were used to evaluate model predicative accuracy and their usefulness in predicting future under-five mortality. Results The paper presents evidence of a downward trend in under-five mortality in Kenya, which the ARIMA model forecasts toward improvements in the coming years. The forecast suggests Kenya is unlikely to meet the SDG 3.2 goal, since the predicted articulation of the mortality rate is projected to plateau above the targeted level by 2030. This implies that more actions need to be put in place to achieve the goal. Conclusion Kenya has made strides in reducing under-five mortality, but it will fall short of its SDG 3.2 target by 2030 without further investment in interventions. Emphasis on healthcare provision, nutrition as well as addressing socio-economic differences are required to achieve the goal.