Regional Production Shift and Increased Utilization Dampen Coal Mine Methane Emissions in China

Methane emissions contribute to about 30% of global warming. China, the world’s largest coal producer and consumer, significantly contributes to global methane emissions through coal mining activities. This study comprehensively assesses coal mine methane (CMM) emissions in China from 2000 to 2023 by developing provincial and national emission estimates based on CMM emission factor (EF) databases and actual provincial production. We employ a robust methodological framework that includes identifying key factors affecting EFs of individual coal mines, estimating provincial production-weighted average EFs, and assessing their associated uncertainties using bootstrap simulations. The findings reveal distinct geographic patterns in EFs, with higher values observed in the Southwest (e.g., Guizhou and Sichuan) due to challenging geological conditions, while the North and Northwest regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang) exhibit comparatively lower EFs. Significant mine production shifts from high-emitting provinces to low-emitting regions resulted in total CMM emission reduction after 2016. Our analysis highlights the critical role of regional production shifts and mine-specific characteristics in shaping CMM emissions. These results contribute to a refined understanding of CMM emission dynamics in China, emphasizing the necessity of targeted mitigation strategies tailored to regional variations in coal mining practices and geology.