Systematic analysis and prediction of the burden of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B in China and Global from 1990 to 2021

Backgrounds Primary liver cancer imposes a heavy disease burden globally, and most cases occur in resource-limited countries. In East Asia, hepatitis B infection is the main risk factor for primary liver cancer. This study aims to provide important data-driven insights and references for improving Liver cancer due to hepatitis B intervention measures through a comprehensive analysis of the disease burden of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B in China and globally. Methods The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B and other data used in this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B in different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was adopted to predict the ASIR of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B by 2030. Results The study found that the incidence and mortality rates of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B in China and globally have generally decreased from 1990 to 2021, but there are still significant regional differences. The mortality rate is higher among the elderly, and the incidence and mortality rates among men are much higher than those among women. Conclusions The study results suggest that it is urgent to establish appropriate public health intervention measures to alleviate the escalating disease burden of Liver cancer due to hepatitis B.