Global, regional, and national burden of vascular intestinal disorders, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2035: A systemic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Objective This study aims to summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the disease burden of vascular intestinal disorders (VID) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden to 2035. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to identify significant changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis were used to quantify the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. In addition, cross-national health inequality analysis was accessed to calculate the unequal distribution of the burden of VID across 204 countries worldwide. Last, an ARIMA model was adopted to predict the burden of VID up to 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of VID decreased by 11.76% in China and 12.17% globally, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined by 7.94% and 15.05%, respectively. The incidence of VID peaked among individuals aged 70–80, with a higher burden observed in women than in men. Cross-country inequality analyses suggested that the inequality in the burden of VID between high- and low-Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries become greater, with lower-SDI countries bearing higher disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of increased incidence and mortality, while epidemiological changes had a moderating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified key turning points in disease burden from 2004–2010. The ARIMA model predicts a continued decline in disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of VID presents a decline and is expected to continue decreasing up to 2035. The high burden is particularly evident in the elderly population, though gender disparities are narrowing. This suggests that aging plays a critical role in the disease burden. High-SDI regions have higher ASMR and ASDR, while regions with low-SDI suffer from higher DALYs. Together, these findings highlight the need for targeted strategies for high-burden regions, which may provide insights into the diagnosis and treatment of VID.