Climate change and health outcomes in Somalia: Empirical insight from the Vector error correction model

Somalia's rainfall is crucial for water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem services. In this drought-prone environment, the rainfall significantly influences crop yields, animal survival, and water supply for rural and urban populations. Changes in seasonal rainfall patterns resulting from climate change led to droughts, hunger, vulnerable health issues, and economic disruption since Somalia's food and water security heavily relies on rainfall. To get empirical evidence for these phenomena, this study examines the impact of climate change on human health, measured explicitly in life expectancy from 1990 to 2020 using the VEC model. The VECM results show that average rainfall negatively affects life expectancy in both the short and long terms, while GDP and population growth positively influence life expectancy. DOLS and CCR long-run results confirm the negative impact of average rainfall, with its insignificance noted. A Granger causality test indicates unidirectional causality from life expectancy and population growth to GDP, with no causal links between average rainfall and life expectancy or GDP. Lastly, this study disclosed that there is bidirectional causality between population growth and life expectancy. The study recommends building resilience against climate change through investment in drought-resistant agriculture, effective water management, sustainable development, and managing population growth for health improvements.