Global temporal distribution of Maca (Lepidium meyenii Walp.) under climate change

Global warming has influenced phenological shifts and community degradation in alpine herbaceous plants. However, the current distribution and future shifts of these plants and their environmental driving factors under climate change are not well known. Here, we focus on Lepidium meyenii , a medicinal herb native to the high-altitude regions of the Andes Mountains in South America, which may face habitat contraction and potential population decline in the future due to changing environmental conditions. We integrate species distribution data with a random forest model to simulate the potential habitats of L. meyenii across time and identify their key environmental drivers. We find that the most significant environmental variables that impact the distribution of L. meyenii include elevation, temperature annual range (bio7), and mean diurnal range (bio2). Since the Last Glacial Maximum, the western Andes in South America has consistently offered suitable habitat for L. meyenii . In contrast, habitat suitability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has varied over time, and in the futurer the TP may become a potential area for biodiversity conservation. This study will enhance our understanding of the distribution patterns of alpine herbaceous plants in response to climate change, and contributes to future biodiversity conservation efforts, the establishment of protected areas, and the sustainable management of medicinal plants as biological resources.