Niche change and distribution dynamics of Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis in China: Implications for pest control

Warming changes are accelerating the impact of pest distribution patterns, particularly the expansion of habitat for stem-boring pests, which are a growing threat to forestry ecosystems. In this study, we applied species distribution models and niche analyses to assess the suitable habitats of Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis under current and future climatic conditions, and analyzed the changes in their niche overlap. The results showed that the ensemble model we constructed was highly accurate in predicting the distribution of the two pests, with AUC values greater than 0.97 and TSS values greater than 0.84. The mean diurnal range (Bio2) and the mean temp of wettest quarter (Bio8) had the greatest contribution to the distribution of A. chinensis and A. glabripennis , respectively. With the impact of climate change, both pests showed an expansion of suitable habitats in the future, however, their overlapping areas were significantly reduced. Additionally, the niche analysis further revealed that the Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I of the two pests were 0.41 and 0.59, respectively, in the current period, suggesting that their niches overlapped to a moderate extent. Meanwhile, the hypervolume of A. glabripennis was larger than that of A. chinensis , suggesting greater adaptability to temperature changes and precipitation fluctuations, and higher ecological plasticity. The results highlight the importance of understanding the niche shifts and distribution dynamics of pests for the development of targeted pest management strategies in the context of climate change, and provide a scientific basis for future prevention and control efforts.