When to ‘switch on’ fuel switching? Exploring the distributional implications of targeted residential electrification

The economics of residential electrification in high-cost electricity regions remain uncertain. Using metered data from over 20,000 California homes, we assess the economic, environmental, and equity impacts of end-use electrification under rollout strategies based on household income and gas infrastructure age. Even under favorable electricity rates, only 15% of households achieve positive net present values (NPVs). Cost-effectiveness improves with deeper electrification scenarios, particularly when more costs are shifted to fixed charges and for homes with existing air conditioning—54–67% of these households break even when electrifying space heating, compared to fewer than 5% of those without. Income-based rebates more than double the share of low- and moderate-income households with positive NPVs. Prioritizing areas with aging gas infrastructure yields emissions reductions on par with high-income-led adoption and avoids costly pipeline replacement, but requires the highest subsidy to achieve cost-effectiveness across all households. These findings highlight trade-offs in designing equitable electrification strategies.