Battery-electric passenger vehicles to become cost-effective across Africa well before 2040

Decarbonizing road transport is crucial for global climate goals, especially in developing countries with rising motorization. This study assesses the economic cost and lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of low-carbon passenger transport in Africa. Using Monte Carlo and optimization models, we compare the total cost of ownership and lifecycle GHG emissions of battery-electric vehicles (BEV) powered by solar off-grid (SOG) systems and synthetic fuel-fueled vehicles to that of fossil-fueled ones, neglecting policy-induced cost distortions across 6 application segments in 52 African countries through 2040. While past reports have assumed fossil fuel vehicles to still dominate in Africa by mid-century, our results show that BEVs with SOG chargers will have lower costs and negative GHG abatement costs well before 2040 in most countries and segments. Financing is identified as the key action point for governments and global financial institutions to accelerate Africa’s transition to BEVs. SOGs for charging present a cost-effective, viable solution to electricity infrastructure challenges.