Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology

Energy efficiency is crucial for sustainable energy transitions, supporting global climate and energy goals. This paper presents a standardized framework for top-down assessment of future energy efficiency policies using the ODEX methodology, addressing critical gaps in evaluating and comparing policy impacts across Europe. By harmonizing key data on energy consumption, policy measures, and target alignment, the framework ensures consistency, reliability, and comparability, fostering more effective strategies. A key innovation is integrating ex-ante (forecasting) and ex-post (retrospective) evaluations into a single framework. This dual approach illuminates both past performance and future impacts, providing insights into drivers of energy savings and the alignment of national efforts with broader objectives. It also underscores how policy choices and market factors interrelate, informing strategic decisions and refining policy design across the European Union. The paper outlines the methodology’s core components, including recent advancements in the ODEX approach, primary data sources, and practical applications in selected EU countries, such as Croatia and Slovenia. These case studies illustrate the framework’s capacity to detect inefficiencies, identify emerging trends, and offer actionable recommendations for policy improvement. In addition, the research highlights the framework’s scalability and potential replication across diverse national contexts and at the EU level. By bridging the gap between historical performance and future planning, this robust, scalable methodology addresses the urgent need for reliable tools to evaluate and monitor energy efficiency policies. Ultimately, it supports the development of harmonized, evidence-based approaches, bolstering national capacities to meet ambitious energy efficiency targets and advancing broader climate and sustainability objectives.