Indonesia's land use dilemma: Balancing food security, bioenergy expansion, and deforestation risks

In 2024, President Prabowo Subianto identified energy and food security as top policy priorities for Indonesia, targeting a biodiesel fuel blending ratio of 50% (B50) and rice production self-sufficiency through development of nationally planned food estates. However, these initiatives pose significant challenges, including the threats of mass deforestation, land conversion, and emissions, as well as competition between food and energy crops. This study assesses the potential land use and emissions implications of meeting Indonesia’s ambitious biodiesel blending targets and rice production goals. Using an improved high-resolution land cover map, multi-criteria evaluation, and production scenario modeling, we analyze the spatial trade-offs between forest conservation, food security, and biofuel expansion. Our findings indicate that achieving the biodiesel B50 target by 2030 will require extensive land conversion, including 4.85–8.55 million hectares of land, while efforts to achieve rice self-sufficiency could convert up to 2.3 million hectares, with significant overlap between food and energy production zones. Emissions associated with land clearing, peatland degradation, and deforestation could surpass historic emissions events, undermining Indonesia’s climate commitments. This research underscores the need for more integrated land-use planning to balance economic development with environmental sustainability and calls for enhanced policy frameworks that mitigate trade-offs between food and energy production.