Impacts of unprecedented wood demand for bioenergy in the Southeastern US

Biomass-based climate solutions, such as bioenergy, are pivotal for meeting climate goals, but they are contingent on sustainable feedstock supply. Early bioenergy development hotspots may offer lessons for broader bioenergy buildout. Here, we examine such a hotspot in the Southeastern US, where planned facilities would increase existing biomass demand by 53%. Using two biophysical forest economics models, we find that market responses, such as shifting wood sourcing, diffuse but do not eliminate land-use change and carbon impacts. New wood demand drives the conversion of 11% of existing natural upland forests into pine plantations. Total forest carbon is persistently lower than without bioenergy buildout, challenging key biogenic carbon accounting assumptions. We find that existing policy frameworks can greatly misrepresent baseline forest carbon accumulation and propose alternative approaches. Combining life cycle emissions and landscape carbon changes, bioenergy deployment achieves net CO ₂ removal by 2036, driven by technologies with carbon capture.