Strengthening Conflict Early Warning Systems: Disaster Risk Monitoring in Ataye Towen, North shewa, Amhara region Ethiopia

This study investigates the effectiveness of conflict monitoring within early warning systems in Ethiopia, focusing on Ataye town in the North Shewa Administrative Zone, using a mixed-methods approach with a sequential exploratory design. Data were collected through key informant interviews with 20 stakeholders, surveys from 385 respondents (253 males and 127 females), focus groups, and document reviews, with qualitative data analyzed thematically and quantitative data through descriptive and inferential statistics. Key findings reveal the significant roles of institutional actors like peace councils, peace clubs, inter-religious councils, and community monitors in promoting grassroots conflict vigilance; however, a notable gap in the uniformity of conflict indicators was identified, with 44 indicators from the Minister of Peace differing from those utilized by police and disaster management, undermining coherent monitoring efforts. Recommendations include strengthening the capacities of monitoring institutions, standardizing conflict indicators for consistency, and establishing conflict early warning curricula in higher education to train qualified personnel, aiming to enhance conflict monitoring and prevention strategies in Ethiopia and effectively address the complexities of inter-ethnic conflicts.