Anticipating Pest Expansion Under Climate Change: Ecological Risks of Scyphophorus acupunctatus to Agave Species in Mexico

Climate change is reshaping species distributions worldwide, with severe consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Mexico, the agave weevil ( Scyphophorus acupunctatus ), an invasive pest of ecologically and economically important agave species, threatens both wild populations and cultivated systems. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to assess the present and future distributions of the agave weevil and seven economically and culturally significant agave species ( Agave americana , A. tequilana , A. salmiana , A. angustifolia , A. cupreata , A. karwinskii , and A. potatorum ) for the period 2041–2060. We projected shifts in species distributions and evaluated the potential overlap between the weevil and its host plants using bioclimatic variables and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our findings revealed divergent responses, indicating that suitable habitats for some agave species may decline due to climate change; conversely, the range of S . acupunctatus is likely to expand, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Niche overlap analysis predicted increased co-occurrence between the weevil and economically critical species such as A. tequilana and A. americana , posing heightened risks to the tequila and mezcal industries. These findings highlight the need for integrated pest management strategies, including biological control, habitat conservation, and sustainable agricultural practices, to mitigate the risks associated with pest expansion. This study provides critical information for conservation planning and adaptive management. By conserving agave biodiversity and promoting climate-resilient practices, we can protect the livelihoods of communities dependent on the agave industry and preserve the cultural heritage associated with these emblematic plants.