Potential impact of climate change on potato (Solanum tuberosum) crops and their main pathogens and pests in the Neotropical region of northern Andes

In regions vulnerable to climate change, ecosystems and agriculture face growing threats from droughts, temperature fluctuations, and floods, which harm crop yields. Climate change may also exacerbate the spread of crop diseases and epidemics, endangering food security, natural landscapes, and human health. Potato cultivation, crucial for global food security, requires a deeper understanding of climate change impacts to develop effective adaptation strategies. This study presents a novel analysis of climate change effects on potato cultivation and its interaction with key pathogens and pests in northern South America’s Neotropical region, including Phytophthora infestans, Ancognatha scarabaeoides, Liriomyza huidobrensis, and Tecia solanivora. Using an interaction matrix and habitat suitability models, the prevalence of the crop and its aggressors was evaluated under short, medium, and long-term climate scenarios. Findings reveal that medium-term conditions for potato cultivation will decline but remain viable. However, the fungus Phytophthora infestans is likely to highly benefit from climate change, posing a significant threat to potato crops. In the long term, the climatic niche for late blight becomes less favorable, and potato cultivation conditions will also deteriorate, potentially rendering it economically unviable. This study highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the dual challenges of climate change and pathogen pressure on potato farming.