Interdependent cascade failure of trade and technology innovation networks under United States export controls

U.S. export controls significantly affect supply chain stability and technological innovation, particularly within the electronics and communication device (ECD) sectors. Using the 2011–2022 U.S. Commerce Control List and global patent cooperation data, we developed networks for ECD intermediate goods trade and technological innovation cooperation. Employing an interdependent cascading failure model, our analysis revealed how U.S. ECD export restrictions propagate shocks, leading to increased network fragmentation with trade networks exhibiting greater vulnerability than innovation networks. Notably, small, highly connected peripheral countries with uneven load distributions, particularly in Africa, Oceania, and Central America, are prone to failures due to overload. Additionally, the network's overall innovation capacity has been declining annually, with the most significant decreases observed in smaller countries in Africa and West Asia, such as Zimbabwe, Palestine, and Tajikistan. Network location emerges as a critical predictor of exposure to shocks and declining innovation capacity. Scenario analysis indicates that lower node capacity parameters significantly enhance network vulnerability, whereas higher parameters have minimal impact. These insights are crucial for enhancing the resilience of high-technology supply chains and innovation networks under major power technological blockades. JEL: C63; F10; O34