Graduate Employability in the Western Balkans: A Career Ecosystem Perspective on Labour Market Inequalities

Purpose: This study examines inequality of opportunity (IOp) in university-to-work transitions (UTWT) and employment outcomes in the Western Balkans Six (WB6), a region facing high graduate unemployment, systemic labour market inequalities, and weak institutional coordination. Grounded in the Sustainable Career Ecosystem (SCE) framework, which integrates Career Ecosystem Theory (CET), Sustainable Career Theory (SCT), and IOp theory, this study explores how systemic, institutional, and individual factors shape employability and career sustainability. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using a two-stage quantitative analysis with 2019–2021 Regional Cooperation Council survey data, Stage 1 employs OLS regression to estimate IOp in UTWT (time-to-first-job), while Stage 2 applies logistic regression to assess the impact of IOp and career ecosystem factors on employment outcomes (job satisfaction, job security, perceived job opportunities). Findings: Findings reveal significant disparities based on gender, rural background, and socio-economic status, with higher IOp linked to poorer employment outcomes. While skills mismatches and informal hiring mechanisms hinder career sustainability, social capital, public sector employment, and perceptions of government job protection improve employment outcomes. Research limitations/Implications: The study is limited by cross-sectional data and the self-reported nature of socio-economic measures. Future research should employ longitudinal data and qualitative approaches to better assess the long-term sustainability of career transitions. Originality/Value: This study provides a multi-level analysis of graduate employability in an underrepresented region, offering insights for policy, universities, and employers. It contributes to the advancement of Sustainable Career Ecosystem theory by examining how structural inequalities shape graduate employability and long-term career sustainability. The findings align with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (Quality Education), 8 (Decent Work), and 10 (Reduced Inequalities), advocating for targeted policy interventions that promote equitable and sustainable career pathways. Purpose: This study examines inequality of opportunity (IOp) in university-to-work transitions (UTWT) and employment outcomes in the Western Balkans Six (WB6), a region facing high graduate unemployment, systemic labour market inequalities, and weak institutional coordination. Grounded in the Sustainable Career Ecosystem (SCE) framework, which integrates Career Ecosystem Theory (CET), Sustainable Career Theory (SCT), and IOp theory, this study explores how systemic, institutional, and individual factors shape employability and career sustainability. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using a two-stage quantitative analysis with 2019–2021 Regional Cooperation Council survey data, Stage 1 employs OLS regression to estimate IOp in UTWT (time-to-first-job), while Stage 2 applies logistic regression to assess the impact of IOp and career ecosystem factors on employment outcomes (job satisfaction, job security, perceived job opportunities). Findings: Findings reveal significant disparities based on gender, rural background, and socio-economic status, with higher IOp linked to poorer employment outcomes. While skills mismatches and informal hiring mechanisms hinder career sustainability, social capital, public sector employment, and perceptions of government job protection improve employment outcomes. Research limitations/Implications: The study is limited by cross-sectional data and the self-reported nature of socio-economic measures. Future research should employ longitudinal data and qualitative approaches to better assess the long-term sustainability of career transitions. Originality/Value: This study provides a multi-level analysis of graduate employability in an underrepresented region, offering insights for policy, universities, and employers. It contributes to the advancement of Sustainable Career Ecosystem theory by examining how structural inequalities shape graduate employability and long-term career sustainability. The findings align with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (Quality Education), 8 (Decent Work), and 10 (Reduced Inequalities), advocating for targeted policy interventions that promote equitable and sustainable career pathways.