Scan Statistic Approach for Spatial Hotspot Identification and Modelling Socio-Economic Influences on Child-Targeted Crimes in India

Children are among the most vulnerable members of society, often subjected to various forms of exploitation and violence. Improved spatial hotspot analysis techniques must be used to examine the crime hotspots (areas with a high intensity of crimes) and to map out long-term policies to protect children in India. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), a part of the Ministry of Home Affairs, publishes year-wise data on various crimes across India. The present study aims to identify the spatial hotspots for child-targeted crimes for all districts across India using a statistical analysis tool (SaTScan). Furthermore, multiple linear regression analysis with R-squared of 0.806 is performed to find out which factor plays a significant role in increasing total crime against children in India. The result of the study from spatial hotspot analysis indicates that districts from the states Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh provide a more significant contribution to criminal hotspots for child-targeted crimes. From multiple regression analysis, the study found out that factors like cruelty by husband on his wife, liquor and narcotic consumption, play significant role in increasing the total crime against children in India. The insights and crime analytics presented in this study will aid in developing a roadmap for the government and other authorities for planning and implementing new policies in controlling and resolving child-targeted crimes in India.