Spatial Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic trends, distribution, and intervention strategies in Nigeria (2019-2022)

The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on Nigeria from 2019 to 2022, causing significant disruptions across physical, emotional, economic, and social spheres. This study assessed the geographic dimensions of COVID-19 incidence and spread in Nigeria, focusing on government responses and mitigation strategies. The research utilized data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. The study carried out Global Moran I, and Anselins Local Moran I spatial statistics to test spatial autocorrelation of the COVID-19 across states in Nigeria and multi-correlations analysis between confirmed cases, deaths, and population factors. The findings revealed that Lagos was the hotspot with the highest number of cases. The Moran's I index analysis of COVID-19 confirmed cases across Nigerian states revealed non-significant weak positive autocorrelation (0.06096) at (p = 0.26) while the Local Moran I analysis of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria reveals that Ogun state had low confirmed cases despite its proximity to high-risk states like Lagos and Oyo state, while some Northern states, including Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kogi, reported relatively low cases compared to Southern states. There is a strong positive correlation at r = 0.94 between confirmed cases and population density indicating higher urban densities experienced heightened infection rates. Moreover, moderate positive correlations at r = 0.46 between confirmed cases and population size indicate larger communities reported more cases. Government interventions, such as lockdowns, curfews, interstate travel bans, and mandatory mask mandates, played crucial roles in curtailing COVID-19 transmission. The study recommends enhanced inter-state border checks, databases, and strengthened surveillance measures for inbound international.