Global trends of Neck pain, 1990-2019, and trends prediction: studied from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Neck pain is a disease of the musculoskeletal system caused by various factors, which has a high incidence, morbidity, and disease burden. Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the authors analyzed the incidence, prevalence, and rates of DALYs for neck pain at the gender, age, and sociodemographic index levels, respectively, to explore the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of neck pain. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the 30-year prevalence trend of neck pain. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used to predict future trends in neck pain. Results In 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate per 100,000 population were 579.09 (95% uncertainty interval 457.90 to 729.64), 2696.52(95% UI 2177.01 to 3375.19), and 267.35(95% UI 175.53 to 383.54), respectively. Countries with high sociodemographic indexes have high prevalence trends, and the Low SDI countries had the lowest disease burden of neck pain. The predicted incidence in 2026 is 609.85 per 100,000 population. Conclusions In summary, the prevalence of neck pain and the burden of the disease have increased over the past 30 years, especially since 2011, with the incidence increasing year by year in high-SDI countries. The overall prevalence is higher in women than in men. There is a trend toward younger people.