Climate change drives elevational gradients in Sorbus domestica L. habitat

Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity, influencing habitat distribution and survival of forest tree species. The True Service Tree ( Sorbus domestica L.), a temperate species with ecological and economic importance, faces uncertain prospects for adaptation under future climate conditions. This study utilizes species distribution models (SDMs) and various environmental variables to assess shifts in habitat distribution and migration trends under current and future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Results indicate that under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, the average altitude of suitable habitats could rise by approximately 160 meters by 2100, highlighting potential migration to higher altitudes as an adaptation to habitat loss pressures. However, it remains uncertain whether this upward shift can keep pace with the rapid rate of climate change. Additionally, the study identifies the mean temperature of the driest quarter as a critical limiting factor for habitat suitability, underscoring temperature’s pivotal role in shaping the species’ future distribution. By integrating climate, landscape, and elevation variables, the study quantifies the relative importance of various environmental factors in determining species distribution across different climate scenarios. Including landscape variables such as soil organic carbon, land cover type, and clay content significantly improved model accuracy, emphasizing their influence on habitat quality and plant survival. This research provides a scientific basis for the conservation of S. domestica under future climate conditions, offering practical for reserve planning and habitat management. By addressing gaps in understanding the high-altitude migration adaptations of temperate forest tree species, the study also provides valuable insights for conserving other forest species, advancing climate-adaptive conservation strategies for biodiversity.