Projected Shifts in the Distribution of Anopheles funestus under Future Climate Scenarios in Malawi

Understanding the projected shifts in Anopheles funestus (An. funestus) distribution under future climate scenarios is crucial for strengthening malaria vector control strategies in Malawi. This study employs species distribution modeling using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), coupled with downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), to assess habitat suitability under present and future climatic conditions (2021–2040). Model evaluation indicated strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.91), ensuring reliable forecasts. The most influential bioclimatic variables shaping An. funestus distribution were mean temperature of the driest quarter (48.6% contribution) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (27.4% contribution). Future projections reveal a notable northward shift in suitable habitats, with increased risk in the Northern and Central regions, particularly along Lake Malawi’s shoreline. Under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)5-8.5 scenario, traditional malaria-endemic areas such as Nsanje are projected to experience a 31% decline in habitat suitability. In contrast, the likelihood of An. funestus presence is expected to increase by 42% in Karonga and Nkhata Bay, areas historically already considered high-risk. These findings suggest that climate change will significantly alter malaria transmission dynamics, potentially exposing previously low-risk populations to higher infection rates. To mitigate these emerging risks, it is imperative to integrate climate-driven vector distribution shifts into national malaria control strategies. Strengthened entomological surveillance, proactive vector management, and targeted interventions in newly emerging high-risk zones will be essential to prevent disease resurgence. This study underscores the need for adaptive, climate-responsive malaria control policies to safeguard public health in Malawi and beyond.