Forest-savanna stability in India under human interventions and changing climate

Forests play a pivotal role in regulating water and carbon cycles, yet their resilience to climate change remains unexplored for India—the world's second-largest contributor to global greening. Our study projects that global warming will drive the savannization of major Indian forests by the late 21st century. However, targeted human interventions could mitigate these effects. Between 2001 and 2020, India’s total tree cover declined from 30–28%, yet afforestation efforts led to shifts in composition, with forest grids increasing from 7.2–8.6% and savanna grids from 9.2–11.7%. Nearly half of India’s landscape exhibits forest-savanna bistability (unistable savanna), controlled by low (high) precipitation variability and seasonality. We found expansion of Savana in India by the end of the 21st century driven by model projected increase in precipitation variability under SSP-585 scenario. Hence, strategic forest conservation policies will be pivotal to safeguard India’s forest ecosystems against climate change.