Local over Global: Anthropogenic Stressors Outpace Climate Impacts on Coral Reef Collapse in the South China Sea

Coral reefs are declining globally, but region-specific drivers of degradation remain poorly quantified, hindering targeted conservation. By collecting two decades of field data from 102 sites across 22 coral reefs in the northern South China Sea (SCS) and employing panel regressions and structural equation modeling, we identify key stressors that are responsible for 40% (17–50%) of the declines in live coral cover (LCC). Local anthropogenic stressors—overfishing, nutrient pollution from agriculture and coastal urbanization—collectively explain 73% of LCC variance, outweighing climate-associated thermal stress. We then propose an Integrated Coast-Reef Management (ICRM) framework that couples land-sea interventions—sustainable fisheries, watershed nutrient controls, and CoTS outbreak controls prioritization. Spatial simulations indicate that this synergistical strategy could elevate LCC by two to four times under global warming scenarios, avoiding reef calcification collapse (LCC > 10%). Our findings contribute to coral conservation paradigms by highlighting tailored strategies at the local level beyond globalized approaches, which offer scalable solutions for regions facing similar pressures.