Diffusion of innovation of RET’s renewable energy technologies in transition economies using diffusion models. (Case for Germany and Western Balkan countries)

The purpose of this research is to highlight how the diffusion of innovative new RET’s renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind, in Western Balkan countries as transition economies, could have a significant impact on reaching the EU Green Deal energy transition targets of "no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050” and the Paris Agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and transition of these economies to low-carbon development paths [1]. The purpose of this analysis is to present sufficient evidence regarding the reliability and viability of the adapted renewable energy technologies, specifically solar PV and wind technologies. Additionally, it aims to assess the diffusion of innovation in these technologies and predict the extent to which the growth of these innovative technologies is contributing to the achievement of national energy transition objectives for Western Balkan countries. This research will utilize diffusion models dual phase logistic (bi-logistic) and Gompertz for the objective of analysing the adoption and forecasting RET’s wind and solar PV, since it has been shown to be effective in previous research studies [2]. The proposed methodology will be utilized to examine the cumulative capacity (measured in megawatts MW) of renewable energy technologies (RETs) wind and solar PV throughout the previous ten-year period for WB6 and from 1990 for Germany. The utilization diffusion models simulation scenarios will enable the projection of solar PV and wind technologies penetration up until the year 2035 and 2050.