Marine Fish Production in Odisha: A Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Holt's Linear Trend Models for Forecasting and Production Instability

The marine fish production sector of Odisha plays a significant role in the India's fisheries sector, accounting for 4.80% of the nation's marine fish output in 2022–2023. This study aims to investigate the trends, growth patterns, and instability of marine fish production in Odisha from 1990-91 to 2022-23 and forecast production for upcoming years. The annual time series data of marine fish production of Odisha was obtained. Marine fish production exhibited a gradual increase, but the overall CGR remained modest (1.56%). Exponential Trend method was used to fit the historical production data (R ²  = 0.56). While ARIMA (0,1,0) and HLT models both were suitable for forecasting, HLT model achieved higher accuracy (93%). The study investigates district-wise growth patterns and instabilities, identifying Kendrapara as exhibiting significant instability in recent years. The analysis highlights the disparities in production, with Balasore, Jagatsinghpur, and Puri emerging as major contributors. Instability analysis using Coefficient of Variation (C.V.), Coppock’s Instability Index (CII), Cuddy-Delle Valle Index (CDVI) revealed Kendrapara’s instability in marine fish production. Kendrapara stands out for its notable instability, attributed to a combination of environmental, socio-economic, and government regulation-related factors such as cyclones, limited infrastructures, and fishing restrictions. Challenges such as underreporting and market constraints pose significant barriers to harnessing the potential of marine fisheries in Odisha. The study highlights need for improved production strategies in Odisha’s marine fisheries sector and places emphasis on determining the factors affecting state's marine fish landings ensuring sustainable growth and helping shape state and district-wise policy decisions on infrastructure development.