Green Growth or Economic Trade-offs? Economic Costs of Environmental Degradation in ECOWAS. A New Perspective from Artificial Neural Network and SEM Analysis

Environmental degradation creates unfriendly conditions for economic growth and public health, especially in developing regions like West African countries, where fast industrialization increases these risks, along with precarious environmental legislation. The study aims to analyze the direct and indirect relationships between environmental degradation, health expenditure, and economic growth within the ECOWAS region. The research adopted structural equation modelling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analysis to examine the impact of carbon dioxide emission, nitrous oxide emissions, and air quality levels on economic growth, taking health expenditure as the mediating variable. Results of SEM show that carbon emission; and nitrous oxide emission positively influence the economy, while poor air quality negatively affects it, health expenditure mediates the influence of nitrous oxide emission on economic growth with an indirect effect. However, it has an insignificant mediating effect between carbon emissions and air quality. Also, ANN analysis confirms the SEM results that indicate carbon emission has the highest predictive importance. The study, therefore, recommends increased stringency of environmental regulations in the West African region, investment in clean energies, and health infrastructural improvement as ways through which environmental degradation may be minimized to allow the attainment of economic development sustainably. JEL: H51, P18, Q51, Q53, Q56