Low-carbon emission reduction policy, ecological environment evolution and macroeconomic fluctuations: a simulation analysis based on multi-sector DSGE

This paper explores the effects of multiple external shocks faced by manufacturers and the government on the macroeconomy and the quality of the ecological environment by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in various sectors, with the following conclusions: (1) Both productivity and environmental protection technology shocks can achieve the coordinated development of macroeconomic and ecological environments. (2) Environmental improvement is lagging behind business willingness to cut emissions, and an energy shock has an immediate but long-term unsustainable impact on reducing low-carbon emissions. (3) The effects of the government's three emission-reduction measures diverge significantly. In the short term, the carbon tax rate significantly improves environmental quality. However, in the long term, its effect is counterproductive, as it does nothing to support the coordinated development of the economy and ecological environment. The subsidies for energy conservation and emission reduction, along with government expenditure on pollution control, stimulate growth in output, consumption, and energy in the current period. However, the restoration effect on the ecological environment has a lag. (4) The long-term coordinated development of the ecological environment and economy will fundamentally necessitate continuous technological progress, as well as flexible and effective market mechanisms.